Monday 21 April 2014

Nothing Rotten in Denmark

The Economist has taken a whack at the indebtedness of Danish homeowners, suggesting fragility in Denmark to interest rate rises.  In response I've sent the following letter to the editor:

Re: Danish Mortgages - Something Rotten

Sir,

Danish mortgage bonds have outperformed US Treasuries and all other government debt since the start of the financial crisis in 2008.  Rather than being backed by the theoretical capacity of governments to raise taxes on struggling economies, Danish mortgage bonds are backed by real properties with sensible valuations, 20 per cent down payments by borrowers, and a system of transparent market finance that has not experienced a bond default in over 200 years.

The level of Danish private mortgage debt may be high, but Danish borrowers are being urged to refinance at low fixed rates.  Danish banks are doing the urging because they can finance mortgage loans in the liquid bond market.  Even if a property bubble bursts, Danish borrowers who cannot meet loan payment obligations will typically sell at a profit rather than default.  When a much larger bubble burst in the 1990s borrowers with 3 months arrears peaked at less than 2 per cent.


Kathleen Tyson Quah
Granularity Ltd
London